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It is a constant source of speculation and debate amongst professionals in the car business: Will EVs, PHEVs, and hybrids ever take over the market. How long will it take for this category of vehicles to represent 10% or even 20% of the North American car park? Do these vehicles truly have a future?
To the last question, my answer is: Yes. However, it'll be a long while before they make up a significant portion of new car sales in the U.S. or Canada. And by significant, I mean 10%. The first issue is education as the population is still generally unaware of what these vehicles actually represent. For many, the “electrical” part scares them off. Then there's the issue of pricing.
The education part of my conclusion stems from the fact that diesel sales in the U.S. are doing quite well. Volkswagen, one of the strongest supporters and proponents of the technology, have experienced significant increases in TDI (diesel) take rates. This is a sign that this clean, efficient, and proven technology is growing in popularity and awareness.
Here are a few stats: 34% of all 9,521 Passats delivered in March of 2013 were TDIs. Of all 37,704 new Volkswagens sold in March in the U.S., 22.6% were diesels. These are encouraging numbers.
It may very well be that the leap from internal combustion (i.e., gas powered) to anything electric seems like too large a step towards “green” and economy. Meanwhile, diesel requires zero changes in driving habits, style or otherwise, except for driving up to a fuel pump instead of a gas pump.
This leads me to further believe a few things: The first is that consumers as a whole are not and will not be ready to accept hybrids, plug-in hybrids and/or electric vehicles en masse for another long while... like 10 years. And by “en masse,” I'm referring to 10% of total new car sales.
I, unfortunately, do not have stats to currently compare “electric” sales to those of diesels. There are more manufactures today offering hybrid alternatives than there are making diesel engine options available. My guess is that hybrids are outselling “diesels” by a margin, but only because they are more widely available.
It will be interesting to see how the Chevrolet Cruze and Mazda6 diesel alternatives do when they arrive in showrooms. The first obstacle for these products will be pricing as they, like most hybrids and diesels, will be presented as premium models. Time will tell if they survive...
The other belief is that (and what would help) if other manufacturers would concurrently make diesel powertrains available to consumers. I'm thinking about Chrysler (Fiat), Ford and Nissan (Renault). This could be the beginnings of a good business case.
I've said it before; these are interesting times in which we are living, automotively speaking of course as I know about little else. In the not-too-distant future, we will look back on the earliest portion of the 21st century as being pivotal in the direction that cars will have taken.
My money is on all of it. There's proof in the fact that the more options/products/choices consumers have, the more they buy.
If you're Volkswagen and have hybrids, diesel, AWD, CUVs, wagons, sedans, convertibles, hatchbacks, and performance cars all under the same roof, it's nearly impossible to not have what a potential buyer might be looking for. Imagine if they bring in the Amarok compact pickup, the up! Microcar and the Touran compact people mover. It'll be tough to compete with all of that... This is why they're aiming for the world's No. 1 spot for 2018.
To the last question, my answer is: Yes. However, it'll be a long while before they make up a significant portion of new car sales in the U.S. or Canada. And by significant, I mean 10%. The first issue is education as the population is still generally unaware of what these vehicles actually represent. For many, the “electrical” part scares them off. Then there's the issue of pricing.
The education part of my conclusion stems from the fact that diesel sales in the U.S. are doing quite well. Volkswagen, one of the strongest supporters and proponents of the technology, have experienced significant increases in TDI (diesel) take rates. This is a sign that this clean, efficient, and proven technology is growing in popularity and awareness.
Here are a few stats: 34% of all 9,521 Passats delivered in March of 2013 were TDIs. Of all 37,704 new Volkswagens sold in March in the U.S., 22.6% were diesels. These are encouraging numbers.
It may very well be that the leap from internal combustion (i.e., gas powered) to anything electric seems like too large a step towards “green” and economy. Meanwhile, diesel requires zero changes in driving habits, style or otherwise, except for driving up to a fuel pump instead of a gas pump.
This leads me to further believe a few things: The first is that consumers as a whole are not and will not be ready to accept hybrids, plug-in hybrids and/or electric vehicles en masse for another long while... like 10 years. And by “en masse,” I'm referring to 10% of total new car sales.
I, unfortunately, do not have stats to currently compare “electric” sales to those of diesels. There are more manufactures today offering hybrid alternatives than there are making diesel engine options available. My guess is that hybrids are outselling “diesels” by a margin, but only because they are more widely available.
It will be interesting to see how the Chevrolet Cruze and Mazda6 diesel alternatives do when they arrive in showrooms. The first obstacle for these products will be pricing as they, like most hybrids and diesels, will be presented as premium models. Time will tell if they survive...
The other belief is that (and what would help) if other manufacturers would concurrently make diesel powertrains available to consumers. I'm thinking about Chrysler (Fiat), Ford and Nissan (Renault). This could be the beginnings of a good business case.
I've said it before; these are interesting times in which we are living, automotively speaking of course as I know about little else. In the not-too-distant future, we will look back on the earliest portion of the 21st century as being pivotal in the direction that cars will have taken.
My money is on all of it. There's proof in the fact that the more options/products/choices consumers have, the more they buy.
If you're Volkswagen and have hybrids, diesel, AWD, CUVs, wagons, sedans, convertibles, hatchbacks, and performance cars all under the same roof, it's nearly impossible to not have what a potential buyer might be looking for. Imagine if they bring in the Amarok compact pickup, the up! Microcar and the Touran compact people mover. It'll be tough to compete with all of that... This is why they're aiming for the world's No. 1 spot for 2018.